The January 6th Committee Hearings

The January 6th Committee hearings that began tonight are nothing but professionally produced political theater intended to distract from the current dissatisfaction in the country and lift the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming midterm elections. To be clear, none of the information presented by the committee is going to be positive to President Trump. The reason for that is because most of the things President Trump did in the lead up to and on January 6th were inappropriate and indefensible. To clarify further, I do not think President Trump should have had a rally that day, he should have acted quicker to speak out against the riot, and his behavior that day is a stain on his legacy. He should not have entertained efforts to change the outcome of the election other than litigating issues involving election law in state and federal court. He also should have spoken immediately to end the rioting at the capital.

Based on what I saw tonight, the committee’s hearings will focus on two major areas, the violence at the capital along with President Trump’s private comments and delayed response to quell it, as well as the efforts of Trump associates to overturn the results based on obscure legal theories. The footage from the rioting will no doubt make for shocking prime time television, and the dubious legal theories will sound obviously illegal and even treasonous to the casually interested viewers who do not regularly follow politics and have very limited political and legal knowledge.

However, what I expect to be missing from the committee’s evidence is the elements of a solid legal case. I expect little to no clear and indisputable evidence that President Trump is criminally responsible for inciting the violence. Also, while the legal theories such as those involving the Vice President’s role under the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act, alternate slates of electors, and others, are obscure, untested, and extremely novel, they are based on real ambiguities in the Constitution and federal law that some have commented on in the past and, should someone desire to test them, are questions for the courts to consider.

It is highly likely that the actions of the Trump associates cannot be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, the relevant legal standard, to be anything other than mechanisms to trigger court cases in which their legality would be determined. The committee is aware of this and so is the Department of Justice, which is why I think it is highly likely that no indictments will ever come from the committee’s investigation. In all their work, they have yet to uncover any smoking gun necessary to criminally convict Trump in court, so they will attempt to convict him and other Republicans in the court of public opinion.